Four Attitudes That Shape Our World — And the People We Meet in It

In his insightful book, Zero to One, Peter Thiel lays out a matrix that helps us understand ourselves, other people and the world we live in. It differentiates between different ways of looking at the future through the lenses Pessimism and Optimism.

The terms are pretty straightforward. A Pessimist tends to expect negative outcomes and anticipates the worse. The Optimists are…well the opposite. They expect positive outcomes and believe things will generally turn out well. The former is a cynic; the latter is hopeful.

“An Indefinite Pessimist looks out onto a bleak future, but he has no idea what to do about it.” They see the random and uncertain future as deterministically bad. Their mantra is “It’s probably gonna suck, but I’m not sure how or why” There is a certain rationality to this view, but their cynicism is just fear in disguise. They are simply drifting along in the current of time, not steering. And being adrift rarely takes you anywhere good.

“A Definite Pessimist believes the future can be known, but since it will be difficult, he must prepare for it.” Their mantra is something like: “It’s gonna get worse, so we better plan for it.” They see the train coming and figure it’s best to get off the tracks. They’re not flailing around. They’ve got a plan – it just may not end well. The world is random and uncertain.

An Indefinite Optimist thinks, “I Don’t Know What’s Coming, But It’ll All Work Out.” The future is unknown, and random chance plays a big part, so extensive planning is not particularly relevant. Life always lands a punch (often repeatedly). However, setbacks are just a part of life – no one said it would be easy. Since the future will likely turn out OK, preparation is more just getting ready for the ride rather than seeking to be the driver.

The Definite Optimist thinks, “I know the future can be better – And I know how to build it.” These are the strategists. Plans are important but only as a guideline. Uncertainty plays a part, but it can be mitigated by preparation and good execution. This notion defined the early stages of the American Experience. Our forefathers believed in Manifest Destiny, that the entire continent belonged to them and they could build it.

That is a lot to digest, and what is the point anyway. After all most of us could identify with any of those categories at different times. Aren’t we just a conglomeration of actions reflecting those views specific to different periods of our life. Perhaps, but I have found it interesting to look at my own actions. I know where I’d like to be (a Definite Optimist), but I haven’t always been and perhaps that is a good thing.

I learned about the need to be a “definite” person (be it pessimistic or optimistic) during my time in the Army.  There is always a plan, but that only goes so far. In the military we expressed that view, “The plan never survives first contact.” However, we always had contingencies.

Moreover, part of the Operations Order was a section called, “the Commanders Intent.” This was a concise expression of the purpose of an operation and its desired end state. When all hell broke loose and things got irrevocably messed up, junior leaders relied on that concept to carry on the mission even without supervision from superiors.

My own career in real estate is also illustrative. First, why would you ever take out a loan and build a spec house if you did not believe someone would buy it and you could make money. Successful builders are generally Definite Optimists. I have seen other builders plow ahead simply believing that a trend will continue without careful thought. They represent Indefinite Optimists and they often fail.

I built an office complex because I understood the medical reimbursement and regulatory environment of my clients. There was an opportunity that I could exploit. It worked for a decade…right up until it didn’t.

I saw the trends change and knew rough sailing was on the horizon. Unfortunately, there was not much I could do to make it better. So, I chose to cut loose before the situation became untenable. I became a Definite Pessimist; the world would get worse, but I had a plan to mitigate it. I sold my holdings (perhaps not at the top of the market, but satisfactory).

I have also seen things go awry. The way I tried to shape the future just doesn’t unfold. No amount of rejiggering could solve the problem. Nothing left to do, but become an Indefinite Pessimist. In my parlance, “Things don’t always turn out like we plan but they do eventually turn out (OK).” Perhaps that is just throwing my hands up and surrendering to the inevitable. I prefer to think that at some point we just need to let go and let God’s plan unfold.

I tend to be more deliberate and intentional in what I do. I believe that (within certain bounds and under certain circumstances) we are able to shape (or at least influence) the future. I like to think that I am “strategic.” Whether formally or ad hoc, focus is always on accomplishing whatever task or goal you seek. The path may wind and you may not be able to fully accomplish the mission, but there is a significantly higher probability of success if you prepare.

This may sound rigid, stylized, constrained. Perhaps! But I firmly believe that unless you know where you are going, it’s very hard to get there (unless you are lucky). In the end, floating down the river without a rudder in the fragile boat that is the human condition is just a poor approach. For those with a “wait and see” philosophy, I would say, “Hope is not a Strategy.”